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Biden Expected To Secure Second Term With Higher Margin Than Last Time, Poll Shows

A recent study by Moody’s Analytics, renowned for its political and economic event modeling, has forecasted that Joe Biden is set to win the 2024 presidential election against Donald Trump, with a slightly larger margin than in 2020. This prediction assumes that both Biden and Trump will be their respective party’s presidential nominees, setting the stage for a rematch of the 2020 election.

Biden Predicted For A Second Term

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Moody’s Analytics, led by chief economist Mark Zandi, senior economist Brendan LaCerda, and economist Justin Begley, released their analysis in January. It employed factors such as past voting trends, approval ratings, and economic conditions to predict the outcome of the election.

A Thin Margin Victory

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According to the study, Joe Biden is anticipated to secure a second term, but by a narrow margin. He is projected to capture North Carolina while losing Arizona, a state he won in 2020.

2 More Votes Than Last Time

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The analysis indicates that Biden would garner 308 electoral college votes, just two more than his previous victory and 38 more than the required threshold for triumph.

Key Swing States

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The electoral college margin in several swing states, including Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, is expected to be incredibly tight, with less than a 1 percentage point difference per state.

Outcome Might Come Post Election

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Consequently, the outcome might not be determined on election night, as automatic recounts and court challenges could come into play.

Biden’s Margin Of Safety

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Even if Joe Biden were to lose both North Carolina and Nevada, the analysis suggests he would still secure an overall victory with a 16-electoral college vote margin.

Georgia,, Pennsylvania Crucial

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However, losing Georgia would bring him to the exact threshold required for a second term.

In contrast, losing Pennsylvania would be detrimental, as Moody’s Analytics concludes that this state is likely to play a pivotal role in determining the election’s outcome.

Acknowledging Past Errors

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Moody’s Analytics openly acknowledged its inaccurate 2020 election forecast, where it incorrectly predicted a Trump re-election.

Too Close To Call

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The organization emphasized the potential closeness of the upcoming presidential election and highlighted the significance of various factors such as the economy’s performance, voter turnout, and third-party vote share.

High Uncertainty And Assumptions

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The report underscores the uncertainty of the current economic climate and the contentious nature of contemporary politics.

Factors Important For Biden To Succeed

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Moody’s Analytics believes that if the economy continues to perform well, as anticipated, and voter turnout and third-party vote share remain consistent with recent historical norms, President Biden is likely to secure re-election. However, these assumptions are significant in a time of economic uncertainty and polarized politics.

Recent Poll Shows Biden’s Lead

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A Quinnipiac University survey conducted from January 25 to 29 indicates that Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national presidential matchup, with a 50 percent to 44 percent advantage.

Improvement In Last Month

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This reflects an improvement from the December poll, where Biden had a 47 percent to 46 percent lead. The survey also highlights Biden’s strong lead among independent voters, with a 52 percent to 40 percent advantage.

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Malik is a skilled writer with a passion for news and current events. With their keen eye for detail, they provide insightful perspectives on the latest happenings. Stay informed and engaged!