The Race for the 2024 Democratic Nomination
The stage is set for the 2024 Democratic primary, with President Joe Biden leading the pack. However, the road to re-election is fraught with challenges and competition.
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Biden’s Bid for a Second Term
President Joe Biden begins his bid for a second term with a significant lead over his Democratic opponents. However, declining favorability and public opinion suggest his re-election could be more negative than positive for the country.
Biden’s Declining Approval Rating
Biden’s approval rating has seen a decline over the past six months, dropping from 42% to 35%. His current approval rating for handling the presidency stands at 40%.
Biden’s Democratic Support
Within his own party, 60% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters back Biden for the nomination. However, 20% favor activist and lawyer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 8% back author Marianne Williamson.
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Biden’s Primary Supporters
Biden’s primary supporters are largely committed, with 58% saying they would definitely support him. However, 42% say they could change their minds.
Biden’s Potential Challenge
Biden could face a challenge in retaining Democratic-aligned White non-college voters in the general election. 16% of these voters say they definitely won’t support Biden in November 2024.
Biden’s Weak Spots
Biden’s weak spots lie among independents who lean Democratic and younger voters. Only 40% of Democratic-leaning independents and 49% of voters younger than 45 back Biden.
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Kennedy and Williamson’s Potential Support
Majorities of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters would at least consider backing either Kennedy or Williamson. However, few seem deeply tied to either candidate.
Among those who would consider Kennedy, 20% cite his connections to the Kennedy family as the main reason. However, many are open to learning more about him.
Nearly 3 in 10 who would consider Williamson say they don’t know enough about her. However, some see her as an alternative to Biden, and others are attracted to the idea of a female candidate.
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Biden’s Likely Nomination
Most Democrats and Democratic-leaning independent voters think it is likely that Biden will become the party’s candidate. 55% say that it is extremely or very likely that Biden will win the nomination.
Public Perception of a Biden Victory
Convincing the overall public that he deserves a second term could prove a challenge for Biden. Two-thirds of all Americans say a Biden victory would either be a setback or a disaster for the country.
Biden vs. Trump
The leading contender for the Republican nomination, former president Donald Trump, fares slightly better in public perception. 43% say a Trump win would be a triumph or a step forward, while 56% see it as a disaster or a setback.
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Biden’s Favorability Rating
Biden’s favorability rating among all Americans stands at 35%, with 57% holding an unfavorable view. This isnear identical to Trump’s favorability rating.
Comparing Biden to Past Democratic Presidents
Views of Biden are sharply more negative than views of each of the three living Democratic past presidents. Barack Obama is the most positively viewed, followed by Jimmy Carter, and then Bill Clinton.
The Road to the 2024 Democratic Nomination
As the 2024 Democratic primary approaches, Biden leads the pack but faces significant challenges. The race promises to be a dynamic and closely watched contest.