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British Intelligence Reports Rising Arson Incidents Reflect Russian Anti-War Sentiment

Recent British intelligence reports reveal a significant increase in arson attacks on Russian military commissariats, indicating growing public dissatisfaction with the ongoing war in Ukraine.

Rapid Increase in Arson Attacks

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Data shows that the number of arson incidents at Russian military commissariats has doubled in just six months, a trend that aligns with rising opposition to the war within Russia.

Official Russian Report on Attacks

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On January 22, 2024, Russian authorities acknowledged 220 attacks on military commissariats since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine began.

This figure contrasts with the 113 attacks recorded from July 2023, highlighting a marked increase.

Russian Intelligence’s Western Blame Game

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Sergei Naryshkin, Director of Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service, blames Western influence for these arsons.

However, British intelligence suggests that the real cause is domestic discontent with the war and potential mobilization.

Charges Against Arson Perpetrators

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Individuals accused of these arson attacks face severe charges, including terrorism and state treason, underlining the Russian government’s stance on these acts of dissent.

Putin’s Stance on Mobilization

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Despite Vladimir Putin’s assurance in December 2023 that no further mobilization is planned, the increase in arsons at military commissariats suggests public skepticism about this promise.

Mobilization Prospects Pre-Election

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Experts believe that Russia is unlikely to initiate full-scale mobilization before the upcoming presidential elections, despite the ongoing contract signing with military recruits.

Growing Discontent in Russia

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The Main Intelligence Directorate reports an increase in the number of Russians dissatisfied with the war in Ukraine, reflecting broader unrest within the country.

Putin’s Fifth Presidential Bid

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Vladimir Putin announced his intention to run for a fifth presidential term on December 8, 2023, with Dmitry Peskov expressing confidence in a landslide victory for the current Kremlin leader.

Extended Presidential Elections

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For the first time, the Russian presidential elections will span three days, from March 15 to 17, 2024.

This extension coincides with planned “elections” in the occupied territories of Ukraine, further complicating the political landscape.

Implications of Arson Attacks

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The surge in arson attacks at military commissariats is a significant indicator of the internal challenges Russia faces as public opposition to the war and potential mobilization grows.

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