Yale economist Ray Fair and other economists are delivering negative news to President Biden on the state of the economy. Fair predicts a slim victory for Biden, with 51 percent of the vote, citing inflation and a potential slowdown in growth as major obstacles.
Democratic pollster Carly Cooperman emphasizes that voters already disapprove of Biden’s economic handling, and a further downturn could worsen his ratings. Fair’s model focuses on economic growth and inflation, assuming a slowdown but not a recession next year. Other economists agree that wages have yet to outpace inflation significantly, and Biden campaign officials anticipate a tough fight in 2024.
Despite these concerns, the economy has remained resilient, defying expectations of a recession. The Federal Reserve’s aggressive interest rate policy and low unemployment rates contribute to the President’s ability to highlight his programs. However, modelers suggest that while these trends may slightly improve Biden’s chances of success, a win is not guaranteed.
Moody’s model includes factors such as unemployment, inflation, and gas prices, which drive consumer sentiment. Economist Mark Zandi acknowledges that while the extremely low unemployment rate is favorable, the increasing costs of daily necessities pose a substantial challenge.
Experts caution against making predictions a year ahead of the election, as unforeseen events can significantly impact the outcome. The Covid-19 pandemic serves as an example, disrupting economic data and changing electoral dynamics.
Donald Luskin, who accurately predicted Trump’s 2016 victory, acknowledges the difficulty in projecting results due to such unprecedented events. Additionally, Allan Lichtman, a renowned election predictor, states that while the economy plays a role in elections, it is not the sole determining factor. Economic models must be viewed in conjunction with other variables to gain accurate insights.
Overall, Biden faces economic challenges heading into the 2024 election, with inflation and potential growth slowdown weighing on his prospects. While the economy has shown resilience, it remains uncertain how these factors will influence voters in the coming year.