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NATO on Brink of Conflict with Russia, Expert Warns

NATO, including key members like the US and UK, is getting dangerously close to a potential conflict with Russia, warns Fabian Hoffman, a researcher at the Oslo Nuclear Project.

Russia NATO Conflict Possible

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He outlined that the Western alliance has a limited window of two to three years to restore its deterrence capabilities.

The implications of failing to do so, according to Hoffman, could involve Russia using coercive tactics against NATO nations and launching long-range strikes on civilian infrastructure.

NATO’s Close Proximity to War

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Fabian Hoffman asserts that the current situation places NATO much closer to a military confrontation with Russia than many people realize. He highlights the urgent need for the West to rebuild its deterrence capabilities promptly.

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Russian Coercion Strategy

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Rather than seeking outright military victory, Hoffman suggests that Russian doctrine involves coercing NATO into submission by demonstrating the ability to inflict increasing levels of damage. This strategy aims to weaken NATO’s resolve and discourage intervention in Eastern Europe.

Threats to Civilian Infrastructure

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Hoffman warns of potential long-range strikes by Moscow on civilian infrastructure within European NATO countries, emphasizing the grim message to NATO governments that supporting Eastern European allies could result in severe consequences for their populations.

Ukraine’s Impact on Russia’s Confidence

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The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has implications for how Russia perceives NATO’s commitment. According to Hoffman, it is teaching Russia a critical lesson: that the West lacks determination and unity.

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Divisions and Debates

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Domestic divisions and ongoing debates about escalation strengthen Russia’s belief that NATO will yield when faced with significant challenges.

Race Against Time

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The expert’s assessment is clear: NATO has a maximum of two to three years to rebuild credible deterrence against Russia. Failure to do so could invite aggressive actions from Russia sooner rather than later.

Whole-of-Society Effort Needed

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Hoffman stresses the necessity for a comprehensive effort across European nations to prepare for this potential threat. He acknowledges that such preparations come with significant costs but views them as an imperative given the escalating risk.

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UK’s Preparations

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The United Kingdom is aligning itself with NATO allies to prepare for worst-case scenarios. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps is expected to announce the participation of 20,000 British troops in one of NATO’s most extensive military drills since the Cold War.

Global Insecurity

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Foreign Secretary David Cameron underscores the gravity of the global situation, stating that the “lights are absolutely flashing red on the global dashboard” due to the high levels of danger, insecurity, and instability worldwide.

Non-State Actors and Terrorism

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Shapps acknowledges that in addition to state actors like Russia and Iran, non-state actors and terrorism further contribute to global instability.

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Unpredictable and Challenging

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The changing landscape includes both state and non-state threats, making the world more unpredictable and challenging.

NATO At a Crossroads

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With NATO at a crossroads in its relationship with Russia, the alliance faces a pressing need to reinforce its deterrence capabilities. The consequences of failing to do so could be severe, as NATO inches closer to the possibility of a conflict with Russia.

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