According to the latest survey conducted by The Economist/YouGov, more independents show a preference for former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup for the 2024 general election.
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The survey asked respondents to choose between Biden and Trump if the election were held now. Both potential candidates garnered equal support at 39 percent, followed by nine percent stating they would not vote, seven percent choosing “other,” and five percent remaining undecided. However, when specifically considering registered voters, Biden holds a three-point advantage.
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As expected, a significant majority of Republicans (83 percent) expressed support for Trump, while a similar majority of Democrats (86 percent) favored Biden. Interestingly, Trump holds an advantage among independents, with 36 percent indicating their support for him, while Biden trails behind with 26 percent.
Among independents, 17 percent stated they would not vote, 11 percent chose “other,” and nine percent remained uncertain about their decision.
When respondents were asked about their beliefs regarding the outcome of the presidential election, irrespective of personal preference, 39 percent expressed their belief that Trump would emerge as the winner, compared to 36 percent who believed Biden would be victorious. A quarter of respondents remained unsure. Among registered voters, Biden maintained a two-point advantage.
Democrats and Republicans displayed similar confidence in their respective candidates’ chances of winning, with 72 percent of Democrats believing in Biden’s victory and 73 percent of Republicans favoring Trump.
Once again, independents leaned toward Trump, with 40 percent stating their belief that the former president would win, while 26 percent believed Biden would be the victor. Thirty-five percent of independents remained undecided.
The survey, conducted among 1,500 U.S. adult citizens from May 27-31, 2023, follows a previous poll by The Washington Post and ABC News, which showed Trump holding a clear lead over Biden.
It is worth noting that the mentioned poll indicated that 49 percent of respondents would definitely or probably vote for Trump against Biden, or leaned towards voting for Trump, while Biden garnered 42 percent in such a scenario. The seven-point lead for Trump is significant and falls outside the margin of error.
Additionally, this survey coincides with Trump’s recent campaign promise to end birthright citizenship through an executive order on his first day as president.
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