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Texas Sen. Ted Cruz Faces Tight Race Against 2 Democratic Challengers, New Poll Reveals

A recent poll by Emerson College Polling and Nexstar Media unveiled a closely contested race for Texas Senator Ted Cruz’s potential third term.
The survey reveals that Cruz is in a statistical tie with two Democratic contenders, U.S. Rep. Colin Allred and State Sen. Roland Gutierrez, setting the stage for an intriguing battle leading up to the November general election.

Cruz in a Dead Heat with Democratic Challengers

Credit: MADISON, WI/USA – March 30, 2016: Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz speaks to a group of supporters during a rally before the Wisconsin presidential primary in Madison, Wisconsin. — Photo by jhansen2

The poll, which surveyed 1,315 registered Texas voters from January 13 to 15, indicates that Cruz is facing a tough challenge from the Democratic field.
Among the nine candidates in the March primary, Allred and Gutierrez stand as the leading contenders against Cruz in November.

Tight Race Against Allred

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In a hypothetical matchup between Cruz and Allred, the poll shows that 42% of voters would support Cruz, while 40% would back Allred.
Meanwhile, 8% of respondents would prefer other candidates, and 11% remain undecided.

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Competitive Battle with Gutierrez

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Should Cruz face Gutierrez in the general election, the race remains incredibly tight, with Cruz at 41% and Gutierrez at 40%. A similar pattern emerges, with 8% favoring alternative candidates and 11% undecided.

Margin of Error

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The pollsters have acknowledged a margin of error of approximately 2.6 percentage points, underscoring the race’s competitiveness.

Cruz’s Optimism Amidst Challenges

In a recent appearance on Fox News, Cruz endorsed former President Donald Trump in the Republican presidential primary.
Despite acknowledging the Democrats’ anticipated $100 million campaign to unseat him, Cruz expressed optimism about the election’s outcome.

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Democratic Senate Primary: High Levels of Undecided Voters

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The poll also highlights the uncertainty within the Democratic Senate primary, with more than six weeks remaining until the primary election.
A significant portion of Democratic voters, constituting 37%, remains undecided about their choice for the primary, representing the most crucial share among 460 Democratic respondents.

Allred Leading Among Democrats

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Among those who have made up their minds, Allred emerges as the frontrunner, securing 29% support.
This finding aligns closely with the University of Texas and the Texas Politics Project’s last month poll, where Allred led with 28%. A plurality of 38% of respondents in that poll had not yet decided.

Closest Contenders to Allred

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The Emerson/Nexstar poll reveals that the closest contenders to Allred are Gutierrez, with 7% support, and former Nueces County District Attorney Mark Gonzalez, with 6% support. None of the other six primary candidates secured support above 5%.

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Challenges for Allred

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Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, emphasizes that “significant portions of several key constituent groups are undecided in the Democratic Senate primary.”
These groups include Hispanic Democratic voters, Gen Z and Millennial voters, and those without a college degree.
Kimball notes that Allred needs to make inroads with these voters to avoid a runoff election.

Important Dates

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The Texas primary is scheduled for March 5, while the general election will take place on November 5, making the race for the Senate seat a significant political event in the state.

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