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Trump Leads in New Hampshire Primary According to Post-Monmouth Poll

In the run-up to the New Hampshire primary, a recent Washington Post-Monmouth University poll reveals that former President Donald Trump holds a significant lead over his sole remaining challenger, Nikki Haley, in the Republican presidential nomination race.

Trump’s Strong Lead

Credit: BRUSSELS, BELGIUM – JULY 12TH, 2018: Press conference of Donald Trump, President of United States of America, during NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) SUMMIT 2018 — Photo by gints.ivuskans

The poll indicates that 52 percent of potential primary voters in New Hampshire are backing Trump, while 34 percent are supporting Nikki Haley. It’s important to note that this survey was conducted before Florida Governor Ron DeSantis suspended his campaign.

Haley’s Gaining Ground

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Nikki Haley’s support has seen a substantial increase from 18 percent in November. This rise is partly attributed to the withdrawal of former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie. However, Trump has also gained ground, increasing his support by six percentage points during the same period.

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DeSantis’s Exit and Endorsement

Credit: Doug Mastriano and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at Unite and Win rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. August 19, 2022, Pittsburgh, PA, USA: Turning Point Action’s Unite and Win Rally ft Gov Ron DeSantis and Doug Mastriano in Pittsburgh — Photo by thenews2.com

The poll reflects Trump’s potential benefit from entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy’s endorsement following his exit from the race. DeSantis’s supporters, as per this poll, would further boost Trump if allocated based on their second choice.

Strong Base Support for Trump

Credit: 12.07.2018. BRUSSELS, BELGIUM. Press conference of Donald Trump, President of United States of America, during NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) SUMMIT 2018 — Photo by gints.ivuskans

Trump enjoys robust backing from the conservative base of the Republican party, while Haley has been making inroads among moderates and independent voters planning to participate in the GOP primary.

Haley’s Strategy in New Hampshire

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Nikki Haley’s strategy in New Hampshire relies on attracting a substantial turnout of independent or unaffiliated voters who can participate in the Republican primary. However, there is limited evidence to suggest that she has significantly closed the gap on Trump since her third-place finish in the Iowa caucuses.

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Trump’s Voter Enthusiasm

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Trump’s supporters appear more motivated to turn out in the primary compared to Haley’s. Trump’s advantage increases to 28 points among voters who express “extreme motivation” to participate, reflecting his previous primary victory in New Hampshire.

Haley’s Favorability Ratings

Credit: Nikki Haley, 2024 US Presidential Candidate delivers remarks at a “Pick Nikki Countdown to Caucus” event in Adel, Iowa. January 14, 2024, Adel, Iowa, USA: Nikki Haley commented on Principal Dan Marburger of who died from gunshot wound injuries — Photo by thenews2.com

Haley’s favorability ratings have declined among potential GOP primary voters in New Hampshire, with 46 percent viewing her favorably, down from 56 percent in November. Her unfavorable ratings have also risen from 31 percent to 40 percent, resulting in a reduced net positive rating.

Trump’s Steady Favorability

Credit: 12.07.2018. BRUSSELS, BELGIUM. Press conference of Donald Trump, President of United States of America, during NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) SUMMIT 2018 — Photo by gints.ivuskans

In contrast, Trump maintains a strong favorability rating, with a net positive rating of 23 points. This indicates that 59 percent of New Hampshire Republican primary voters view him favorably, while 36 percent view him unfavorably, similar to November figures.

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Significance of Undeclared Voters

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Undeclared voters, those not registered as Republicans, have historically played a crucial role in New Hampshire primaries. In this poll, 47 percent of potential Republican primary voters are undeclared, with 53 percent registered as Republicans.

Haley’s Appeal Among Undeclared Voters

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Haley garners support among undeclared voters, leading Trump by 10 points (48 percent to 38 percent). However, among registered Republicans, Trump holds a substantial 42-point lead (64 percent to 22 percent) over Haley.

Moderate-to-Liberal Republican Voters

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New Hampshire’s relatively higher proportion of moderate-to-liberal Republican voters could work in Haley’s favor. Her support among this group has increased from 35 percent in November to 56 percent in the latest Post-Monmouth poll.

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Conservative Voters Favor Trump

Credit: 12.07.2018. BRUSSELS, BELGIUM. Press conference of Donald Trump, President of United States of America, during NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) SUMMIT 2018 — Photo by gints.ivuskans

In contrast, Trump maintains a 68-point lead among very conservative voters and a 29-point lead among somewhat conservative voters, a larger segment of the potential electorate.

Beliefs About 2020 Election

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About half of potential Republican voters in New Hampshire (51 percent) believe the false claim that Joe Biden won the 2020 election “due to voter fraud.” Only 42 percent believe that Biden won the election “fair and square.”

Impact of Beliefs on Support

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Those who believe in voter fraud claims overwhelmingly support Trump (82 percent), while those who believe Biden won fairly support Haley by a significant margin (71 percent).

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Views on Trump’s Response to the 2020 Election

Credit: November 4, 2023, Kissimmee, Florida, USA: Former US President Donald J. Trump delivers remarks at the Republican Party of Florida’s Freedom Summit. — Photo by thenews2.com

A quarter of potential GOP voters in New Hampshire (26 percent) believe that Trump committed a crime in his response to the 2020 election, while 27 percent think he “did something wrong but not criminal.” However, 45 percent believe he “did nothing wrong.”

Trust on Key Issues

Credit: 12.07.2018. BRUSSELS, BELGIUM. Press conference of Donald Trump, President of United States of America, during NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization) SUMMIT 2018. ” — Photo by gints.ivuskans

Trump leads Haley in trust to handle key issues among New Hampshire GOP voters, including immigration policy (62 percent to 26 percent), economic policy (58 percent to 29 percent), and foreign policy (57 percent to 32 percent). Abortion is their closest issue, with 40 percent preferring Trump and 29 percent favoring Haley.

Views on Abortion in New Hampshire

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New Hampshire Republican primary voters have more liberal views on abortion compared to Republicans nationwide. Over 56 percent believe abortion should be legal in all or most cases.

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Support Among Abortion Views

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Those who believe abortion should be mostly or always legal support Haley over Trump (49 percent to 38 percent), while those who think it should be mostly or always illegal overwhelmingly favor Trump (72 percent to 14 percent).

Demographic Insights

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Trump maintains a similar lead among both male and female voters. His lead among voters without four-year college degrees has decreased from 46 points in November to 33 points. In contrast, Haley fares better among college graduates, with 43 percent support, while Trump has 39 percent among this group.

Role of Personal Contact in Campaign

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Fewer than 1 in 4 New Hampshire Republican voters report personal contact from a candidate’s campaign. Among those contacted, Haley’s campaign appears to be the most active.

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Chris Sununu’s Endorsement

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Despite New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu enjoying a 74 percent approval among Republican voters, his endorsement of Haley has limited impact, with only 10 percent saying it makes them more likely to support her.

Poll Methodology

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This Washington Post-Monmouth University poll involved 712 potential voters in New Hampshire’s Republican primary and was conducted from January 16 to January 20, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.2 percentage points.

People Polled

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The sample included registered Republicans and undeclared voters who expressed varying degrees of certainty about participating in the Republican primary. The poll was conducted via live callers on cellphones and landlines and through an online survey via cellphone text invitation.

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