According to Scottish-American historian Niall Ferguson, former President Donald Trump will likely become the next U.S. president.
In an op-ed for The Spectator, Ferguson stated, “A second Trump act is not just possible. It’s fast becoming my base case.”
He explained that the Democrats’ “campaign of lawfare against Trump” has started to backfire, as it generates media coverage that Trump thrives on.
Ferguson argued that the ongoing legal battles divert attention from Trump’s Republican rivals for the nomination.
Ferguson added, “Every column inch or minute of airtime his legal battles earn him is an inch or a minute less for his Republican rivals for the nomination.”
Trump on a rollercoaster of denials and appeals
Recently, a New York jury found Trump civilly liable for battery and defamation in a lawsuit brought by writer E. Jean Carroll, who accused him of rape.
Trump has appealed the verdict, maintaining his denial of the allegations.
Additionally, Trump faces charges of falsifying business records related to non-disclosure payments made during the 2016 presidential campaign.
He has pleaded not guilty to all accounts.
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The Trump-DeSantis battle for 2024 rages on
Ferguson also discussed the hypothetical scenario of a two-person race between Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, stating that there would be more uncertainty around the outcome.
However, current polling indicates that Trump is the clear frontrunner, leading DeSantis by an average margin of nearly 30 points.
DeSantis has not yet said whether he will announce a 2024 White House bid.
Trump, a ‘formidable candidate’ for Republican nomination
A survey conducted by Florida Atlantic University (FAU) showed that Trump led DeSantis 59 percent to 31 percent among registered voters in Florida.
Trump had a decisive advantage in various regions, except for a tie with DeSantis in northwest Florida.
FAU political science professor Kevin Wagner noted that Trump’s support remains solid and consistent, making him a formidable candidate for the Republican nomination.
Recession risk threatens Biden’s reelection hopes
Ferguson pointed out that Trump’s early popularity among GOP presidential hopefuls would work to his advantage in the Republican primary process, which often rewards candidates with early leads due to the delegate allocation system.
He emphasized the historical trend that the Republican frontrunner typically secures the nomination, and incumbents who face a recession tend to lose presidential elections.
Ferguson noted that even a mild recession would negatively impact President Joe Biden’s reelection chances.
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Trump’s legal battles divert focus from Republican rivals
In conclusion, Niall Ferguson believes that Donald Trump has a strong chance of becoming the next U.S. president.
The ongoing legal battles against him have not only attracted media attention but also diverted focus from his Republican rivals.
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Popularity paves the way for a possible victory
Trump’s early popularity among GOP voters and the historical patterns of presidential nominations and elections favor his candidacy.
Additionally, a recession would further enhance Trump’s chances by undermining Biden’s reelection bid.
“For the simple reason that no president since Calvin Coolidge a century ago has secured re-election if a recession has occurred in the two years before the nation votes,” Ferguson explained.
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