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US House Control for 2024 Could Hinge on Upcoming Court Decisions

Legal battles over redistricting could lead to new congressional maps for the 2024 election in more than half a dozen U.S. states, potentially flipping control of the U.S. House of Representatives, which currently has a 219-212 Republican majority with four vacancies.

New Congressional Maps

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The narrow Republican majority could shrink further, with Tuesday’s election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District potentially altering the balance.

Voters will choose a replacement for Republican U.S. Representative George Santos, who was indicted on federal fraud charges and expelled from the House in December.

Changing Dynamics Across States

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Both parties are battling over redrawn maps following the 2020 U.S. Census. Democrats have likely gained seats in Alabama and Louisiana, while Republicans aim to flip three Democratic-held seats in North Carolina.

Pending litigation puts more seats at stake.

Senate Not Affected, but Democrats Face Risks

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Redistricting won’t impact the Senate, where each state gets two seats. However, Democrats risk losing their narrow 51-49 majority. In 2022, a Democratic-engineered map in New York shifted House district balance, nearly giving Republicans a majority.

New York’s Complicated Legal Battle

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New York’s convoluted legal case offers Democrats a chance to pass a favorable map.

The Court of Appeals ordered a new map by February’s end, potentially endangering several Republican incumbents.

Legal Wrangling Over Voting Rights

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A Florida judge ruled against a map backed by Governor Ron DeSantis, but an appeals court reinstated it.

The state Supreme Court, dominated by DeSantis appointees, is set to hear the case, likely just before candidate filing deadlines.

Preserving the Status Quo

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A federal judge ordered a new district to bolster Black representation, but the Republican legislature maintained its advantage.

Despite objections, a new map was approved, maintaining a 9-5 Republican majority.

Balancing New Districts

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A federal judge mandated a second Black-majority district, likely granting Democrats another seat.

The Republican-controlled legislature complied but put a powerful Republican’s seat at risk.

Shifting Power Dynamics

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A federal court approved a new map with increased Black representation, potentially flipping a seat from Republican to Democratic.

This followed a Supreme Court ruling against Republican gerrymandering.

GOP Gains Expected

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The Republican-majority legislature approved a map poised to flip at least three Democratic-held seats.

Conservative judges paved the way for favorable redistricting, potentially solidifying Republican control.

Legal Battle Over Voter Dilution

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The U.S. Supreme Court may uphold a map that dilutes Black voting power.

The new map favors Republicans, despite concerns over fair representation.

Constitutional Questions and Partisan Maps

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The state Supreme Court is deliberating over a Republican-drawn map that critics say violates the state constitution.

Republican dominance in redistricting raises questions about fair representation.

Democratic Hopes for Redrawn Maps

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Democrats are pushing for a new map in the liberal-leaning state, potentially altering the Republican-controlled House delegation.

Legal battles continue as both parties vie for favorable redistricting outcomes.

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