Yale economist Ray Fair, along with other economists like Moody’s Analytics’ Mark Zandi, is projecting a slim advantage for Biden in the upcoming 2024 election. Fair emphasizes that inflation, although lower than its peak in 2022, still remains high and could be a stumbling block for Biden.
The potential slowdown in economic growth is another concern that could impact Biden’s vote. Experts suggest that if the economy worsens, Biden’s approval ratings will likely suffer.
Fair’s model focuses on economic growth per capita and inflation. His projection assumes that while the US economy will slow down, a recession will not occur next year. However, this scenario is not guaranteed, given the current high interest rates and tightening credit flow.
Chief economist at KPMG, Diane Swonk, agrees with the concerns surrounding the economy. Though inflation is cooling down, wages have only recently outpaced inflation, and prices remain high.
Swonk states that the current economic situation is not sufficient to address voters’ anxiety about the economy.
Biden’s campaign officials also anticipate a close election in 2024. They acknowledge voters’ concerns about the economy and consider it their responsibility to effectively communicate their plans and strategies.
Despite economists’ expectations of a recession, the economy has remained strong, bolstering Biden’s confidence in his economic programs. Biden highlights his achievements, such as job creation and historically low unemployment rates, to promote his economic policies.
Modelers suggest that these trends may slightly increase Biden’s chances of winning in 2024. The Moody’s model takes into account unemployment, inflation, and gas prices, which greatly influence consumer sentiment.
However, Zandi acknowledges that the higher cost of living could act as a powerful obstacle for Biden.
Even if inflation continues to fade, an electoral victory for Biden is not guaranteed, according to Zandi. He believes that while the economy could provide some support for the president, other factors could halt his reelection prospects.
Experts caution against making predictions a year in advance of the election. They remind us that consumer sentiment under Barack Obama was worse before his successful bid for reelection in 2012.
The unexpected impact of the COVID-19 pandemic four years ago also disrupted projections, as it drastically affected economic data.
Allan Lichtman, a professor at American University known for accurately predicting election outcomes since 1984, echoes the sentiment that the economy is a crucial factor but not the sole determinant.
Looking solely at the economy often leads to inaccurate predictions, as witnessed in the 2020 election, where the economy entered a deep recession but the election remained closely contested.
In conclusion, economists anticipate a closely contested 2024 election, with the economy playing a significant role in determining the outcome. However, they caution that other unpredictable factors and events may influence the final results, making accurate predictions a challenging task.