As the election year begins, President Joe Biden finds himself grappling with a decline in support among key demographics that were instrumental in his 2020 victory.
Challenges within the Democratic Base
President Biden’s failure to solidify support among core Democratic constituencies, including Black, Hispanic, and young voters, poses significant challenges as he heads into the election year.
Poll Findings
A recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll reveals troubling trends for Biden, with Donald Trump gaining ground among Hispanic voters and young people, while one in five Black voters express intentions to support a third-party candidate.
Erosion of Support among Key Demographic Groups
Biden’s support among Black voters has dropped from 87% in 2020 to just 63%, and he trails Trump by 5 percentage points among Hispanic voters. Additionally, Trump now leads among voters under 35, a demographic that heavily favored Biden in 2020.
Impact of Third-Party Candidates
A significant portion of the support Biden needs to regain has shifted to third-party candidates, complicating the electoral landscape and potentially benefiting Trump.
Analysis of Survey Data
David Paleologos, director of Suffolk’s Political Research Center, highlights how it wasn’t a vote for Trump, but rather a vote away from Biden.
He explained, “A young voter or a person of color voting ‘third party’ is a vote away from President Biden, and a vote away from President Biden is a vote for Donald Trump.”
Brightening Economic Outlook
Despite challenges, there’s a positive outlook on the economy, with a growing number of respondents seeing signs of recovery, albeit without a corresponding boost in support for Biden.
Enthusiasm Gap
Biden faces an enthusiasm gap compared to Trump, with a considerably lower percentage of his supporters expressing high levels of excitement about voting in the upcoming election.
Legal Troubles for Trump
While Trump faces legal challenges, including criminal trials and ballot access issues, his political support remains largely unaffected.
Republican Primary Dynamics
Trump maintains a strong position in the Republican primary race, with high approval ratings among likely Republican voters and a clear lead over potential contenders.
Upcoming Primary Contests
As primary voting begins in Iowa and New Hampshire, the dynamics of the race could shift, potentially impacting Trump’s lead and overall election dynamics.
Challenges for Vice President Harris
Vice President Kamala Harris faces challenges in connecting with key Democratic constituencies, including Black voters and young people, as reflected in lower approval ratings compared to Biden.
Overall Job Approval Ratings
Both Biden and Harris receive mixed job approval ratings, with significant portions of respondents expressing disapproval of their performance.
Voter Sentiments
Some voters, like Sara Falls, express reservations about Biden and Harris, reflecting a sentiment of disillusionment or uncertainty within the Democratic base.
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