Chinese Expert Says Russia’s Defeat in Ukraine ‘Inevitable’

In an unexpected deviation from official Chinese rhetoric, Peking University professor Feng Yujun has offered a bleak prognosis for Russia’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine, suggesting that Moscow’s efforts are bound to fail.

His observations mark a significant shift in discourse about the Beijing-Moscow partnership, hinting at underlying tensions and divergent goals.

Writing for The Economist, Feng outlines several reasons he believes will lead to Russia’s “inevitable” defeat in Ukraine.

His perspective challenges the usual alignment shown by Beijing towards Moscow, providing a nuanced view of the geopolitical dynamics at play.

The first reason cited by Feng involves the remarkable unity and resistance displayed by Ukraine since the conflict’s onset.

This resilience has surpassed expectations and continues to solidify both national and international support for Kyiv.

Internationally, Ukraine enjoys a broad spectrum of support, which Feng notes as a pivotal factor in the ongoing struggle.

Despite some criticisms about the level of aid, the global backing has fundamentally bolstered Ukraine’s position against Russia.

Feng points to the advanced nature of modern warfare, which favors robust industrial infrastructure and sophisticated intelligence capabilities — areas where Russia lags significantly due to its prolonged industrial decline post-Soviet Union.

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A critical disadvantage for Russia, according to Feng, is the isolation of its leadership from reliable intelligence.

This “information cocoon” around top Kremlin officials severely hampers their strategic decision-making abilities.

The invasion has unexpectedly reinvigorated NATO, leading to increased defense commitments from member countries and the expansion of the alliance with new entrants like Sweden and Finland.

This resurgence of NATO poses a new strategic challenge to Russia.

Feng describes a noticeable shift in China’s stance towards Russia, moving from a declared “no-limits partnership” to a more detached position of nonalignment, reflecting Beijing’s strategic recalibration in response to the evolving international landscape.

Amidst these revelations, high-level talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing have highlighted ongoing discussions about countering Western security alliances, underscoring the complex interplay between global powers.

Despite official denials, China continues to play a crucial role in sustaining the Russian economy through significant trade and investment, even as Chinese banks and businesses navigate the complexities of international sanctions.

Feng Yujun’s candid forecast not only casts doubt on the viability of Russia’s military campaign but also signals potential shifts in the geopolitical alliances that have defined the post-Cold War world.

As the situation unfolds, the international community remains watchful of the impacts that these prognostications may have on the broader geopolitical chessboard.